The Science and Art of Simulation I by Michael M. Resch Andreas Kaminski & Petra Gehring

Author:Michael M. Resch, Andreas Kaminski & Petra Gehring
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

5 Conclusions

In this paper, I caution against an overly optimistic assessment of MSMs for policy purposes. In particular, I argued that MSMs might have more severe problems than ASMs in determining the accuracy of the model (4.2, 4.3); that MSMs might have more severe problems than ASMs in dealing with inevitable uncertainty (4.4, 4.6); and that MSMs might have more severe problems than ASMs with misinterpretation and misapplication due to their format (4.1, 4.5, 4.7). This of course does not exclude that some MSMs provide good justifications for policy decisions (and even better justifications than some ASMs); but it should caution against a general preference for MSM over ASMs for policy decision purposes.

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